Head coach Mike McCarthy says, unequivocally, that run defense is his top priority. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine says pass defense is his. We know who’s going to prevail, but who is right?
We all know that the NFL is a pass-friendly operation. All sorts of rule adjustments have been made to encourage passing, and to make passes harder to defend against. In sheer terms of yardage, the median yards given up through the air by NFL teams in 2017 was 226. The corresponding number for rushing yards allowed was 112.
Statistics seldom work out so cleanly: twice as many yards come from the pass as opposed to the run. Advantage Pettine.
The median number of first downs via pass in 2017 was 184, and via run was 94.5. There’s that almost two-to-one ratio again.
Green Bay averaged giving up more than twice as much yardage via air in 2017: 236.8 versus 112 yards. Advantage Pettine.
Pass Versus Rush Teams
The top 10 rushing teams in 2017 were, from first to 10th: Jaguars, Cowboys, Eagles, Panthers, Saints, Bills, Vikings, Rams, Chiefs, and Patriots. The list includes nine playoff teams (all but the Cowboys) and the two Super Bowl teams.
The 10 best passing teams were: Chargers, Patriots, Steelers, Bucs, Saints, Lions, Chiefs, Falcons, 49ers, and Rams. This list contains six playoff teams, and includes the Patriots, but not the Eagles.
Advantage McCarthy.
Causing Turnovers
The median number of interceptions for NFL teams in 2017 was 13; the corresponding number of fumbles lost was eight. In other words, the passing game contains the greater risk of a turnover.
Three of the five teams with the most turnovers in 2017 were playoff teams: Ravers (34), Jaguars (33), Lions (32) , Eagles (31), and Rams (28). The Patriots ranked 25th, with 18. The Packers tied for 13th in the league, with 11 each of interceptions and fumble turnovers.
Advantage possibly to Pettine.
The Deciding Factor
I don’t have percentages handy, but a great number of NFL contests are decided in the last four minutes or so of the game. Many of these games are determined by the success or failure of the final offensive drive. In the great majority of these critical drives, pass completions account for around three-quarters of the yardage, and also a big proportion of the first downs. This is in large part because time is of the essence and passing moves a team down the field much more quickly than running.
So, when it comes down to winning or losing most games, an offense is going to rely predominantly on its pass attack. A defense obviously must count on its pass defense. In fact, for final drives that begin under the two minute mark, run attacks and run defenses are usually of only minor importance.
Advantage Pettine.
Bottom Line
When the game is on the line, I want a quality pass defense on the field – the ability to defend well against the run becomes an afterthought at this point.
Of course, the two aspects of defense aren’t mutually exclusive: some teams have both a strong pass and run defense. But when it comes to filling up a roster, if you think McCarthy’s way, down linemen and inside linebackers are your most valued defensive assets. If you are in the Pettine camp, you want your best players to be defensive backs and pass rushers.