It’s Time to Mock the Mock Drafts

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Kenny Clark

With less than three weeks to go until the 2017 NFL Draft, dozens of football prognosticators are issuing or upgrading their mock drafts. These predictions give us fans something to do as we await the preseason, but I wouldn’t count on their accuracy. Mock, after all, means: bogus, make-believe, phony, faked, pretended, pseudo, false, fraudulent, hokey, spurious.

As I’ve shown before, what draft forecasters can do well is rate the players who are likely to be chosen at the top of the draft and they are good at charting players who are tops at their positions. Trying to connect a given player with a given NFL team, however, is a near impossible dream.

Being a typical Total Packers reader, you want proof, right? I decided to look at last year’s predictions for the Green Bay Packers. I started by taking a look at the mock draft picks for the first three rounds made by a half-dozen national prognosticators. Most or all of these mock draft results that follow were final guesses posted a day before or the day of the 2016 draft.

Chad Reuter – NFL.com

  1. DT Chris Jones
  2. ILB Jaylon Smith
  3. OLB Joe Schobert

Matt Miller, Bleacher Report

  1. DL Vernon Butler
  2. ILB Jaylon Smith
  3. CB James Bradberry

Charlie Campbell – Walter Football

  1. DT Vernon Butler
  2. DE/DT Jihad Ward
  3. ILB Jaylon Smith

Dane Brugler, CBS Sports

  1. DT Jarran Reed
  2. ILB Kentrell Brothers
  3. TE Jerell Adams

Draftsite.com

  1. ILB Reggie Ragland
  2. ILB Kentrell Brothers
  3. CB Zack Sanchez

Fox Sports

  1. DT Andrew Billings
  2. DE Jihad Ward
  3. WR Tyler Boyd

Zero for 18! That got me to wondering if anyone, anywhere, accurately predicted any of the Packers’ first three actual choices.

It turns out that someone at Fox Sports collected the final projections of 41 prognosticators last year – a little more than half picked just a first round choice, while most of the rest projected players for all seven rounds. How many got any of the Packers first three selections correct?

The winner is Ben Volin of the Boston Globe, the only one out of 41 speculators who picked UCLA defensive tackle Kenny Clark as Green Bay’s first selection.

Taking second place is Bob Glauber of Newsday – he picked Indiana tackle Jason Spriggs, but had him going to the Packers in the first round, not the second, which is where he was actually chosen. In third place was Pete Fituak of collegefootballnews.com, who picked Utah State outside linebacker Kyler Fackrell, but had him as Ted Thompson’s second-round, not third-round selection. Vinnie Iyer of The Sporting News gets the booby prize – on the final day before the draft he switched his pick from Kenny Clark to Ohio State outside linebacker Darron Lee.

If you are contemplating making some wagers based on your favorite mock draft guy, I’d rethink that notion.

About The Author

Rob is currently twiddling his thumbs on Whidbey Island in Washington. He likes to do research, although he has no shortage of opinions. He saw his first live Packers game in 1958, the only win of the year.

4 Comments on "It’s Time to Mock the Mock Drafts"

  1. KILLER

    The funniest thing is that all six of those mock drafts the players accrued are better than what “actual” GM Ted Thompson was able to do. All six!

    So, the good news right there is that there are at least 6 candidates to replace TT that are known commodities better than TT.

    • Ferris

      I remember when Christian Ponder was a good value, so was Kick Return Patterson, and 7th overall Troy Williamson, and last year Mr. ONE catch for the season for 15 yards Laquon Treadwell. Is Matt Millen the GM there? Go away dipshit.

      • KILLER

        Oh, Ferris, so self-deluded!

        Our GM is Rick “Trader Rick” Spielman and he is so much better than TT it actually IS funny.

        You give a few names. 2 of those 4 are picks are from another era, before Rick was in charge. Another is just from last year and, so, far too soon to pass judgement. The 4th, Patterson, has been to the pro bowl multiple times and has set NFL records. Granted, as a kick returner but, still, pretty good for a failure. Packer failures just get burnt for long TDs, nothing else.

        Take a look at 2015 draft and go to an objective source like the NFL.com site. Who did the Packers take? Demarius Randall. Worse than a failure. So far, utter disaster. 2nd round? Quentin Rollins? Bench-warmer. Annnnnnd, Rick Spielman? According to NFL.com, if the draft of 2015 were redone knowing what we know now the Vikings picked up the 3rd best pick (third overall!) in the 3rd round in DE Danielle Hunter, 18.5 sacks in two years of part time duty. AND, we got the 16th best overall player in MLB Eric Kendricks in round 2 (led team in tackles two years in a row, 6.5 sacks, interception, TD, an unbelievable number of defensed passes). AND, we got the 24th best overall player in WR Stefon Diggs in round 5. You may recall him vs. the Packers last year in the first game catching 9 passes for 182 yards.

        Besides Rollins and Randall, who collectively are less than nothing, more of a minus than any benefit, the Packers also accrued a few role players in a FB, Ty Montgomery who recently switched positions, and Jake Ryan. The Vikings also got a future star in CB Trae Waynes (only on the bench due to exceptional play by Rhodes and Newman and QBs passing his way have a low rating. You may recall Waynes intercepting Rodgers last year.) and a frequent starter in OT T.J. Clemmings. And three other players still on our roster.

        Night and Day, Ferris! Wake up. Snap out of it.

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