In this decade there are two superior teams, year in and year out, in the NFL. Not by coincidence, they are guided by the league’s two best coaches: Bill Belichick for the New England Patriots and Pete Carroll for the Seattle Seahawks.
Since I reside in western Washington, I have watched or seen endless highlights of most of the Seahawks’ games over the past 15-plus years. I believe the Packers must upgrade their performance if they are to defeat this perennial powerhouse. Below are five areas in which the Packers need to – and can – improve if they are to keep winning and striving to make the playoffs.
Unpredictable Play Calling
Carroll is the most creative coach in the league and the team’s play calling, done by offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, is the most bold and unpredictable. You can almost bank on it that on some 3rd-and-short or 4th-and-short, Russell Wilson is going to go deep. These plays almost invariably work and the sure-handed Doug Baldwin is the perfect receiver for the job.
You can also rely upon the occasional end-around, reverse or quarterback play-action run option. On Sunday, speedy wide receiver Ty Lockett began the third quarter by going in motion, taking the handoff from the quarterback and heading around right end. The 75-yard backbreaker wasn’t due to a fantastic effort by Lockett or anything risky or tricky, but it’s a play the Green Bay Packers almost never run.
Almost never. To everyone’s amazement, Mike McCarthy called an end-around (some call it a jet sweep) against the Texans. It’s the first such play I can remember the Packers using in at least three years. Receiver Jeff Janis backtracked to take Aaron Rodgers’ handoff and he had clear sailing around the left side. The 19-yard romp led to a two-yard score by Aaron Ripkowski on the next play. Two or three of these unexpected plays would go a long way toward keeping the Seattle defense from ganging up on the Packers short-passing game.
Exploit the Middle of the Field
This was McCarthy’s mantra before and during the preseason. Though the Packers acquired Jared Cook, seemingly the perfect mid-field receiver, McCarthy has failed all season to send him or anyone else across the middle.
On Sunday, Cook was targeted four times: a flat pass to the left for -1 yard, a short pass to the right for 10 yards, a short pass to the left side for 10 yards, and an incomplete deep pass along the left sideline. The first two passes were in the first six minutes of the game; the next throw toward Cook was the last play of the third quarter.
Against the Texans, Cook went unused for 39 minutes and was never thrown to anywhere near the center of the field. Cook continues to be extremely under-utilized by Green Bay. Other than two 8-yard tosses to Richard Rodgers, McCarthy showed no inclination to attack the middle of the field in this game. Maybe someone should play the coach some old tape of Jermichael Finley.
End the Three-and-Out Repetitions
Against the Redskins two weeks ago, the Packers’ offense came out with three consecutive three-and-outs to open the game. They didn’t get a first down until two minutes were left in the first quarter against the Redskins. Against the Texans, Green Bay went from five minutes left in the second quarter until six minutes left in the third quarter with one first down, three punts and a failure to convert a 4th-and-2.
Continued lapses such as these kills momentum, gives the opponent great field position, tires the Packers’ defense and takes the fans out of the game. Green Bay will not win against Seattle if they have extended offensive lapses against a solid team like the Seahawks.
Commit to a Running Back
Against the Texans, the Packers had a decent balance of 33 designed passing plays vs. 23 designed rushes, but they messed up the start of the game and the start of the second half by playing James Starks. As we forecast, Starks has had a dreadful season – he forfeited his starting RB job some time ago in everyone’s mind but McCarthy’s.
After Starks gained one yard in four carries, McCarthy turned to Christine Michael, who looked good initially, but was then abandoned. Michael finished with six carries, plus the three runs to run out the clock at game’s end. Ty Montgomery also had six carries, in which he looked very good, averaging almost seven yards per carry.
Michael will presumably have an extra incentive against the Seahawks, as they released him just three weeks ago – after he led them in rushing, and aided them to four wins and a tie in the seven games he started.
If McCarthy is serious about winning on Sunday, Starks sits, Michael starts, Montgomery gets his fair share of the RB snaps, and Aaron Ripkowski also gets five or so carries.
Don’t Be Intimidated
The Seahawks are solid, but they are not as dominant as most people think and they too have had a rough season in terms of injuries.
The Seahawks’ vaunted pass defense and defensive backs aren’t what they used to be. They’ve given up 256 passing yards per game, ranking 19th. The Packers have given up only five yards more per game – and this was before Seattle’s All-Pro safety Earl Thomas broke his leg on Sunday.
The Seahawks’ passing attack? Seattle is tied for 23rd at 231 yards per game; the Packers are 16th at 254 yards per game. However, over the last seven games prior to Sunday the Packers, led by a resurgent Aaron Rodgers, led the league in passing yardage. Rodgers has a better passer rating, has been sacked four fewer times, and has passed for 17 more touchdowns than Russell Wilson. S-E-V-E-N-T-E-E-N.
As for receivers, Seattle’s Mr. Reliable is Doug Baldwin, ranked 15th in yardage. The other two best Seattle wide receivers are Jermaine Kearse (ranked 88th) and Tyler Lockett (100th). For the Packers, Jordy Nelson is now ranked 9th, Davante Adams is 23rd and Randall Cobb is 50th.
It’s true that Seattle’s top rusher on the year is ranked 25th in the league, but Christine Michael now wears the Green and Gold. Thomas Rawls was formidable on Sunday against hapless Carolina, with 15 rushes for 106 yards, but against Tampa Bay a week earlier, Rawls had only 38 yards on 12 carries. Rawls is averaging only 3.8 yards per rush on the season.
Here’s another comparison: the Packers’ offensive line are among the league’s top five offensive units. The starters by year’s end will average five years of experience, all with the Packers, and none are yet 30. I’m counting T.J. Lang, who has been injured.
The Seahawks’ offensive line starters are: RT Bradley Sowell (fifth year, but only 19 games as a starter); LT George Fant (rookie); LG Mark Glowinski (second year); RG Germain Ifedi (rookie); and Center Justin Britt (third year, first as a center). By year’s end, the group will average only 2.5 years in the league.
Finally, Seattle is 2-3-1 on the road. Okay, they beat the Patriots on the road. But they lost to the Rams and the Buccaneers, and tied the Cardinals, each time without scoring a touchdown.
Forecast
Motivation is, or should be, on the Packers’ side on Sunday. They have their backs against the wall. Seattle is not quite home free, but with its 8-3-1 record, it is three full games ahead of Arizona in the NFC West and Seattle leads all wild card contenders too.
Though it would be impossible to prove, my belief is that between Green Bay and Seattle, Green Bay has the better roster. If McCarthy starts taking better advantage of the talent he possesses – a long shot indeed, especially at this point in the season – the Packers can prevail on Sunday.