Sunday will mark the fifth meeting between the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers in the last five years. Invariably when the two have recently met, the focus has been on the teams’ respective strengths: Seattle’s defensive backs and Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers and his receiver group. The Packers appear to be overtaking their rival in this matchup.
Seattle’s Defensive Backs Are in Decline
First, let’s look at that all-star defensive backfield of Seattle. In 2012, the core group of Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, and Brandon Browner was established, with Marcus Trufant being the fifth DB. Seattle edged the Packers in Washington by a 14-12 score that year.
The teams didn’t meet in 2013, but in 2014 Byron Maxwell had replaced Browner and Jeremy Lane was the fifth DB. Seattle again beat the Packers in Washington, in the first game of the season, 36-16. In the 2014 postseason, Seattle beat the Packers, again at home, 28-22 in overtime, though the Packers dominated for the first 55 minutes.
When they played Seattle in 2015, the Packers faced Thomas, Sherman, DeShawn Shead, Cary Williams, and fifth DB Marcus Burley. Finally, a game between the two was played at Lambeau Field, with the Packers prevailing 27-17.
On Sunday, due to Earl Thomas having broken his leg last weekend, the lineup should be Sherman, Chancellor, Shead, and Steven Terrell, with Lane as the fifth DB. Only cornerback Sherman and strong safety Chancellor remain from that core group, and none of Seattle’s replacements has been more than an average DB.
This game will again be in Green Bay.
Safety Steven Terrell has struggled to stay in the NFL since going undrafted in 2013. He’s been with the Jaguars, Texans and now the Seahawks, often as a practice squad player. He has two passes defended, no interceptions and 14 tackles in his three years with Seattle. He did play the entire game, subbing for Thomas, who had a hamstring injury, in Seattle’s recent 14-5 loss to Tampa Bay. Until two weeks ago, Thomas had never missed an NFL game in seven years. When it rains, it pours.
On the year, Pro Football Focus has Sherman ranked 28th and Shead 35th among NFL cornerbacks. PFF lists Chancellor as the second best safety and the injured Thomas as ninth best. Replacement Terrell would rank just outside the top 50 safeties if he had more playing time.
In sum, Kam Chancellor is the only Seattle DB playing like an All Pro this year. Over the last five years, Sherman’s interception totals have been 8-8-4-2-4. Though he is still a formidable presence, the combative 28-year-old is not often referred to as a “shutdown” cornerback anymore.
Packers Have Improved Against Seattle’s DBs
In the three head-to-head matchups since 2012, both teams have had modest passing success. Russell Wilson has averaged 208 passing yards in the three games. Rodgers has passed for 189, then 178, and finally for 249 yards in the 2015 game (25-of-33, two touchdowns, no interceptions).
Randall Cobb has averaged seven catches and 79 receiving yards in the teams’ three most recent encounters. Jordy Nelson, though missing the 2015 game, has 14 catches for 154 yards in the two 2014 season games. Davante Adams, playing in just the 2014 playoff game and the 2015 game, had only six catches for 40 yards. Richard Rodgers, in those same two games, managed seven catches for 58 yards. Ty Montgomery had four targets and four catches for 37 yards in the 2015 game – his first catches in the NFL.
With the Packers’ receivers (including tight end Jared Cook, who is in his first season with the Packers) the healthiest they’ve been all year and with the Seattle DB group a much diminished force, the Packers should be able to pass for between 250 and 300 yards on Sunday.
That is likely to be enough. I’ll be interested to see what the betting odds are for this contest.