That’s the $16.5 million question, I guess.
Brett Favre had the best season of his career at age 40 for the Minnesota Vikings, last season. He threw for 4,202 yards, the third highest total of his career. He threw for 33 touchdowns, which is tied for the fourth highest in his career. Most impressively, he threw only seven interceptions, which is the lowest total of his career since he’s been a starter. He also had the highest completion percentage of his career at 68.4 percent.
You can argue that one of his MVP seasons were better, but when you add it up, I think last season was Favre’s best, particularly because he didn’t give games away by throwing interceptions.
So, you have to wonder what to expect from Favre and the Minnesota Vikings this season. Statistically speaking, it’s unlikely Favre will be able to duplicate last season, especially at age 41 on a gimpy ankle.
Another reason a duplicate performance is unlikely is the New Orleans Saints showed the entire league how to beat (and beat up) Favre and the Vikings in the NFC Championship game, last season. That approach alone will likely yield more interceptions for opposing defenses.
There are too many variables to get a real gauge on how Favre will perform in 2010, but we did a quick statistical breakdown of his career to get an idea. Throwing out Favre’s first year in Atlanta, when he threw only four passes, Favre’s average career line looks like this:
3,852 yards, 27 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a 62 percent completion percentage
That’s a pretty nice year, unless you’re being counted on to be a franchise savior. Adding 10 interceptions and subtracting six touchdowns from last year’s totals is probably the difference in two games.
The Vikings are still a solid 10-6 in that scenario, but it’s hard to see them winning the division with that mark.
Ultimately, the point here is Favre is likely to come back to earth a little bit and the Vikings aren’t likely to be as good, which is good news for the Green Bay Packers.